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Title

California’s Health Coverage Gains to Erode without Further State Action

Publication Topics

Access to Health Care; California Health Interview Survey; 2012 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS 2012); 2016 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS 2016); Health Insurance Coverage and Programs; Health Care Reform; Medicaid/Medi-Cal; Uninsured

Publication Type

Policy Brief

Publication Date

2018-11-27T08:00:00Z

Author 1

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=945&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=945&RootFolder=*">Miranda Dietz</a>

Author 2

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=944&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=944&RootFolder=*">Laurel Lucia</a>

Author 3

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=202&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=202&RootFolder=*">Dylan H. Roby, PhD</a>

Author 4

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=132&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=132&RootFolder=*">Ken Jacobs</a>

Author 5

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=1427&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=1427&RootFolder=*">Petra Rasmussen, MPH</a>

Author 6

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=694&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=694&RootFolder=*">Dave Graham-Squire</a>

Author 7

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=689&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=689&RootFolder=*">Xiao Chen, PhD </a>

Author 8

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=165&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=165&RootFolder=*">Gregory Watson, MS</a>

Author 9

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=1568&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=1568&RootFolder=*">Ian Perry</a>

Author 10

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=144&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=144&RootFolder=*">Gerald F. Kominski, PhD</a>

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Abstract

​In 2016, 10.4 percent of non-elderly Californians lacked insurance, compared to 16.6 percent in 2012, according to the California Health Interview Survey (CHIS). Without state action to protect and build upon these coverage gains, authors project that the uninsurance rate could grow to 11.7 percent in 2020, or approximately 4.0 million people, and to 12.9 percent in 2023, or 4.4 million people. These uninsured rates are based on a definition of insurance that excludes restricted-scope Medi-Cal for undocumented Californians.

The federal law zeroing out the ACA individual mandate penalty beginning in 2019 will result in lower individual market and Medi-Cal enrollment, but there is significant uncertainty about how much enrollment will decline in California. Using the California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) microsimulation model and a range of assumptions about the extent to which the penalty influences enrollment decisions, the authors project that between 150,000 and 400,000 more Californians will be uninsured in 2020, growing to between 490,000 and 790,000 more uninsured in 2023, compared to if the ACA penalty had been maintained. The most substantial enrollment changes will occur in the individual market, where the authors project enrollment will decline by 10.1 percent in 2020 and 14.4 percent in 2023.
 

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Policy Brief: California's Health Coverage Gains to Erode without Further State Action

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Press Release

Related Link 1

California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM)

Related Link 2

California Health Interview Survey (CHIS)

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UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education

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Version: 10.0
Created at 11/19/2018 2:27 PM by i:0#.f|uclachissqlmembershipprovider|celeste
Last modified at 12/12/2018 1:55 PM by i:0#.f|uclachissqlmembershipprovider|bhan