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Title

Assessing and Forecasting Population Health: Integrating Knowledge and Beliefs in a Comprehensive Framework (Public Health Reports)

Publication Topics

Cost and Utilization Studies; Costs of Specific Medical and Public Health Interventions; Risk-Adjusted Outcomes; Medicaid/Medi-Cal; Medicare; Small Area Estimation; Health Care Economics; Health Insurance Coverage and Programs; Research Methods

Publication Type

Journal Article

Publication Date

2009-12-01T08:00:00Z

Author 1

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=429&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=429&RootFolder=*">Jeroen Van Meiguard</a>

Author 2

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=509&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=509&RootFolder=*">Jonathan E. Fielding</a>

Author 3

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=144&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=144&RootFolder=*">Gerald F. Kominski, PhD</a>

Author 4

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 5

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 6

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 7

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 8

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 9

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 10

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 11

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 12

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 13

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Author 14

<a onclick="OpenPopUpPage('http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*', RefreshPage); return false;" href="http://healthpolicy.ucla.edu/_layouts/listform.aspx?PageType=4&ListId={7AAD61FA-4BCB-48C0-B0B7-87AFDC3673EF}&ID=0&RootFolder=*"></a>

Abstract

A comprehensive population health-forecasting model has the potential to interject new and valuable information about the future health status of the population based on current conditions, socioeconomic and demographic trends and potential changes in policies and programs. The authors' Health Forecasting Model uses a continuous-time microsimulation framework to simulate individuals' lifetime histories by using birth, risk exposures, disease incidence and death rates to mark changes in the state of the individual. The model generates a reference forecast of future health in California, including details on physical activity, obesity, coronary heart disease, all-cause mortality and medical expenditures. The authors use the model to answer specific research questions, inform debate on important policy issues in public health, support community advocacy and provide analysis on the long-term impact of proposed changes in policies and programs, thus informing stakeholders at all levels and supporting decisions that can improve the health of populations.

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Version: 1.0
Created at 9/27/2011 11:58 AM by Harout Katerjian
Last modified at 4/2/2012 12:14 PM by hsingh