California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM)

 

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CalSIM: Modeling the future of health care

As California implements the Affordable Care Act (ACA) its leaders require a good understanding of what the likely impacts of the law will be on its residents – and the state’s budget. To help them, the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and the UC Berkeley Center for Labor Research and Education created the California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM), a micro-simulation model that can be used to estimate the impact of various elements of the ACA. CalSIM uses a wide range of official data sources, including the California Health Interview Survey.  

To date, CalSIM has helped California’s state and local health officials, medical providers, community representatives, insurance companies and others to understand the likely enrollment of Californians in an expanded Medi-Cal as well as in the state’s new health insurance exchange, Covered California. It has helped project how the “individual mandate” might impact coverage as well as who will be left out of new health care reform efforts.

The California Endowment, The California Health Benefit Exchange (Covered California), the Blue Shield of California Foundation, and the California Pan-Ethnic Health Network provided funding for the development of CalSIM and analyses.

CalSIM was developed in the Center’s Health Economics and Evaluation Research (HEER) Program​. For more information about CalSIM, please contact:

Gerald Kominski, PhD
Director, UCLA Center for Health Policy Research
Principal Investigator, CalSIM

Email: kominski@ucla.edu
Phone: 310-794-2681

 
Publications using CalSIM include:
 
 

Policy Briefs, Notes and Reports:

Which Californians Will Lack Health Insurance Under the Affordable Care Act? (Jan. 2015)

CalSIM Version 1.91 Statewide Data Book, 2015-2019 (May 2014)

CalSIM Version 1.8 Statewide Data Book 2014–2019 (March 2013)

CalSIM Version 1.8 Regional Data Book 2014 and 2019  (March 2013)

Medi-Cal Expansion under the Affordable Care Act: Significant Increase in Coverage with Minimal Cost to the State (Jan. 2013)

After Millions of Californians Gain Health Coverage Under the Affordable Care Act, Who Will Remain Uninsured? (Sept. 2012)

Estimating the Change in Coverage in California with a Basic Health Program (August 2012) 

California Program on Access to Care Findings (August 2012)

Nine Out of Ten Non-Elderly Californians Will Be Insured When the Affordable Care Act is Fully Implemented (June 2012)

Newly Insured Californians Would Fall by More than 1 Million under the Affordable Care Act without the Requirement to Purchase Insurance (Jan. 2012)

Achieving Equity by Building a Bridge from Eligible to Enrolled (Feb. 2012)

Proposed Regulations Could Limit Access to Affordable Health Coverage for Workers’ Children and Family Members (Dec. 2011)

Version 1.7 Methodology and Assumptions (June 2012) 

Version 1.8 Methodology and Assumptions​ (March 2013)

Version 1.91 Methodology & Assumptions Update (Jan. 2015)

 


Fact Sheets:

​Predicting Exchange Enrollment with Subsidies under the Affordable Care Act: Regional and County Estimates (June 2012) 

Predicting Increase in Medi-Cal Enrollment under the Affordable Care Act: Regional and County Estimates (June 2012) 

Remaining Uninsured in California under the Affordable Care Act: Regional and County Estimates  (June 2012) 


Journal articles:

Large Repayments of Premium Subsidies May Be Owed to the IRS if Family Income Changes Are Not Promptly Reported (Sep. 2013)

Modeling the Impact of the Affordable Care Act and the Individual Mandate on Californians (Jan. 2013)  


Webinars and Presentations:

Predicting Response to the Affordable Care Act: Will Californians Take Advantage of New Options ​(Oct. 2012):                                             

Health Care Coverage in California under the Affordable Care Act (presentation to the California Health Benefit Exchange Board, March 2012) 

The Potential Impact of the Affordable Care Act in California ​(presentation to California Health Benefit Exchange Board, May 2011): 

 

 

 
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