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Modeling the Impact of the Affordable Care Act and the Individual Mandate on Californians (Journal of Family and Economic Issues)

January 23, 2013

CHIS Journal Article

Authors: Dylan H. Roby, PhD, Gregory Watson, MS, Ken Jacobs, Dave Graham-Squire, Christina M. Kinane, Daphna Gans, PhD, Jack Needleman, PhD, Gerald F. Kominski, PhD

​This article in the Journal of Family and Economic Issues highlights research conducted jointly by the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and the UC Berkeley Labor Center on who is likely to secure insurance coverage through the "individual mandate" specified under health care reform. The research builds upon a previous Center publication that projects that 1.8 million Californians (38%) of the 4.7 million eligible uninsured will secure coverage by 2019 with the mandate, while only 839,000 (18% of the eligible uninsured) would obtain coverage without it. The study also presents new projections, including the surprisingly small percentage of people who will likely be subject to the individual mandate (3.5%) as well as those who will likely not be subject to the individual mandate tax penalty: the undocumented, people who are legally present in the U.S. but do not have to file taxes, or those who do not have an affordable offer of insurance coverage, among others.

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