Gerald F. Kominski

Gerald Kominski, PhD, senior fellow at the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, is the principal investigator of CalSIM, a professor emeritus of health policy and management at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and a professor emeritus of public policy at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs. He was Center director from 2012-2018 and associate director from 1994-2012.

Kominski's research interests focus on evaluating the costs and cost-effectiveness of health care programs and technologies, with a special emphasis on public insurance programs, including Medicare, Medicaid, and Workers' Compensation; improving access and health outcomes among ethnic and vulnerable populations; and, developing microsimulation models for forecasting eligibility, enrollment and expenditures under health reform. He led the team at UCLA that developed the UCLA/UC Berkeley CalSIM microsimulation model use for estimating the impacts of health reform in California.

From 2003-2009, Kominski served as vice chair for the Cost Impact Analysis Team of the California Health Benefits Review Program(CHBRP), which conducts legislative analyses for the California legislature of proposals to expand mandated insurance benefits. From 2001-2008, he was associate dean for academic programs at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health.

Kominski received his PhD in public policy analysis from the University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School in 1985, and his AB from the University of Chicago in 1978. Prior to joining the faculty at UCLA in 1989, he served for three and a half years as a staff member of the agency now known as the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC). He is co-author of over 215 articles and reports, and edited the widely used textbook, Changing the U.S. Health Care System: Key Issues in Health Services Policy and Management, which was published in its fourth edition in 2014.

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Policy Brief

Policy Brief

Pathways to a Unified Health Care Financing System in California

The report developed by the Health Economics and Evaluation Research (HEER) Program through a contract with the California Health and Human Services Agency (CalHHS) examines various aspects of health care financing, such as the role of health plans, provider payments, and benefits; their respective impact on access, quality, and equity; and key considerations if California opted to implement a unified health care financing system. 

The key design considerations for unified financing in California discussed in the report include: 

  • Models of unified financing 
  • Eligibility and enrollment rules 
  • Benefits options 
  • Approaches to premiums and cost sharing 
  • Provider payment methods 
  • Approaches to promoting effectiveness, efficiency, and equity
Journal Article

Journal Article

Cost Analysis of a Scalable Clinician Communication Intervention to Increase HPV Vaccine Initiation

Authors randomized 48 primary care pediatric practices to online communication training vs. usual care. Online communication training reduced missed opportunities (MOs) for initial human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination at well-child care (WCC) visits by 6.8 percentage points among children aged 11–17 years. The current study estimated implementation costs of the communication training intervention at WCC visits.

Authors analyzed monthly surveys completed by intervention practice lead clinicians to track clinician plus office staff personnel hours devoted to implementing the intervention. They converted personnel time into 2019 U.S. dollars using national median hourly wages for physicians and other health care workers; they tracked nonpersonnel costs. Authors calculated costs per practice (overall and by practice size) and estimated costs per averted MO for HPV vaccine initiation using an effectiveness estimate determined by grouped logistic regression at the practice level.

Findings: Practices varied from 1 to 24 clinicians and from 241 to 8,866 visits during the 6-month intervention. Total intervention costs varied substantially across the 24 intervention practices from $370 to $6,653, with a mean of $2,003 and median of $1,305. The incremental cost per averted MO for HPV vaccine initiation at WCC visits averaged $110 ($212 in practices with 1 or 2 physicians and $94 in practices with 3 or more physicians).

The implementation cost per averted MO for HPV vaccine initiation at WCC visits of this online communication training intervention was modest, particularly among larger pediatric practices.

 

External Publication

External Publication

All 2.37 Million Californians in the Individual Market Will Face Higher Premiums if Congress Does Not Act by 2025

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) included additional federal subsidies to make health insurance more affordable in the individual market, but these expire at the end of 2025. If Congress does not extend the expanded subsidies and levels revert to those in the original Affordable Care Act, all 2.37 million Californians in the individual market — including those not receiving subsidies — would face higher health insurance premiums and be forced to choose between more expensive coverage, less generous coverage, or forgoing coverage altogether and going uninsured. Under this scenario, authors project that in 2026:

  • 1,558,000 Californians would pay an average of $967 more per year but maintain coverage despite having their subsidies reduced or eliminated;
  • 740,000 Californians enrolled in unsubsidized coverage would pay an average of $253 more per year due to the worse risk-mix of the individual market if the IRA subsidies were eliminated;
  • 69,000 additional Californians would become uninsured.

Authors conclude that maintaining IRA-level subsidies in the individual market would protect 2.37 million Californians from insurance premium increases and keep 69,000 Californians covered. For these subsidies to continue, Congress must act in 2024 or 2025. In early 2025, insurers will develop their rates for the 2026 coverage year, and rates will be finalized by the middle of 2025. Congressional action before then could help avoid premium increases.

Journal Article

Journal Article

Impact of Management Guidelines for Abnormal Cervical Cytology on Colposcopy Procedure Rates Among Young Women

In 2012, updated American Society for Colposcopy and Cervical Pathology (ASCCP) management guidelines for abnormal cervical cytology recommended observation rather than immediate referral to colposcopy for low-grade abnormalities in women ages 21–24. Researchers evaluated the impact of these guidelines on changes in colposcopy procedure rates among young women. They analyzed administrative and claims data from the largest statewide family planning program between July 2011 and June 2015. Using a difference-in-differences approach, researchers estimated changes in colposcopy procedure rates among women ages 21–24 years before and after the 2012 ASCCP management guidelines, relative to a comparison group of women ages 25–44.

Findings: The analysis included 333,977 women from 216 primary care provider sites. After publication of the 2012 ASCCP management guidelines, colposcopy rates significantly declined from 6.70% to 3.94% among women ages 21–24 and from 4.35% to 3.53% among women over 24 years. These declines correspond to a 1.93 percentage point reduction in colposcopy rate among women 21–24 vs. over 24 years, or a two-fold relative reduction.

Among women ages 21–24, colposcopy receipt was associated with speaking primarily English vs. non-English, having a cervical cytology test within the past year vs. not, and receiving care from a public vs. private provider.

Colposcopy procedure rates among young women significantly declined following publication of the 2012 management guidelines, which has implications for reducing potential harms of overtreatment.

Policy Brief

Policy Brief

Pathways to a Unified Health Care Financing System in California

The report developed by the Health Economics and Evaluation Research (HEER) Program through a contract with the California Health and Human Services Agency (CalHHS) examines various aspects of health care financing, such as the role of health plans, provider payments, and benefits; their respective impact on access, quality, and equity; and key considerations if California opted to implement a unified health care financing system. 

The key design considerations for unified financing in California discussed in the report include: 

  • Models of unified financing 
  • Eligibility and enrollment rules 
  • Benefits options 
  • Approaches to premiums and cost sharing 
  • Provider payment methods 
  • Approaches to promoting effectiveness, efficiency, and equity

View All Publications

Journal Article

Journal Article

Cost Analysis of a Scalable Clinician Communication Intervention to Increase HPV Vaccine Initiation

Authors randomized 48 primary care pediatric practices to online communication training vs. usual care. Online communication training reduced missed opportunities (MOs) for initial human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination at well-child care (WCC) visits by 6.8 percentage points among children aged 11–17 years. The current study estimated implementation costs of the communication training intervention at WCC visits.

Authors analyzed monthly surveys completed by intervention practice lead clinicians to track clinician plus office staff personnel hours devoted to implementing the intervention. They converted personnel time into 2019 U.S. dollars using national median hourly wages for physicians and other health care workers; they tracked nonpersonnel costs. Authors calculated costs per practice (overall and by practice size) and estimated costs per averted MO for HPV vaccine initiation using an effectiveness estimate determined by grouped logistic regression at the practice level.

Findings: Practices varied from 1 to 24 clinicians and from 241 to 8,866 visits during the 6-month intervention. Total intervention costs varied substantially across the 24 intervention practices from $370 to $6,653, with a mean of $2,003 and median of $1,305. The incremental cost per averted MO for HPV vaccine initiation at WCC visits averaged $110 ($212 in practices with 1 or 2 physicians and $94 in practices with 3 or more physicians).

The implementation cost per averted MO for HPV vaccine initiation at WCC visits of this online communication training intervention was modest, particularly among larger pediatric practices.

 

External Publication

External Publication

All 2.37 Million Californians in the Individual Market Will Face Higher Premiums if Congress Does Not Act by 2025

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) included additional federal subsidies to make health insurance more affordable in the individual market, but these expire at the end of 2025. If Congress does not extend the expanded subsidies and levels revert to those in the original Affordable Care Act, all 2.37 million Californians in the individual market — including those not receiving subsidies — would face higher health insurance premiums and be forced to choose between more expensive coverage, less generous coverage, or forgoing coverage altogether and going uninsured. Under this scenario, authors project that in 2026:

  • 1,558,000 Californians would pay an average of $967 more per year but maintain coverage despite having their subsidies reduced or eliminated;
  • 740,000 Californians enrolled in unsubsidized coverage would pay an average of $253 more per year due to the worse risk-mix of the individual market if the IRA subsidies were eliminated;
  • 69,000 additional Californians would become uninsured.

Authors conclude that maintaining IRA-level subsidies in the individual market would protect 2.37 million Californians from insurance premium increases and keep 69,000 Californians covered. For these subsidies to continue, Congress must act in 2024 or 2025. In early 2025, insurers will develop their rates for the 2026 coverage year, and rates will be finalized by the middle of 2025. Congressional action before then could help avoid premium increases.

Center in the News

Fed up with U.S. health care costs, these Americans moved abroad (paywall)

Gerald F. Kominski, senior fellow at the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research, provided expert context to explain how some Americans who have health insurance still end up facing medical debt and thus may move to another with more affordable health care. News https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/08/17/us-healthcare-americans-move-abroad/

View all In the News

Center in the News

A majority of Californians support affordable health care for undocumented immigrants, polls show

UCLA Center for Health Policy Research Senior Fellow Gerald Kominski says that even though cutting Medicaid would worsen health outcomes and result in higher health care costs across the board, he expects congressional Republicans to deliver a bill to President Trump’s desk that makes the cuts. News https://capitalandmain.com/a-majority-of-californians-support-affordable-health-care-for-undocumented-immigrants-polls-show

Center in the News

How the ACA has transformed healthcare — and what its future may hold

UCLA Center for Health Policy Research Senior Fellow Gerald Kominski was quoted extensively in this article about the history and impact of the Affordable Care Act. News https://www.healthcare-brew.com/stories/2025/04/10/affordable-care-act-transformed-healthcare-future

Online & In-Person

Paul Torrens Health Forum: A Tribute to Jerry Kominski — Healthcare Reform in California & the Nation

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Online & In-Person

Medicare for All: Is it Finally Time for Single Payer in the U.S?

Online

2019 E. Richard Brown Symposium on Universal Health Care in California