Why is Modeling the Supply and Demand of Our Behavioral Health Workforce Important? Modeling tools provide a detailed, role- and geography-specific analysis of the current and future workforce, including both anticipated gaps and available supply. The California Department of Health Care Access and Information (HCAI) aims to be a leading authority on health workforce supply and demand in California and beyond, empowering HCAI and its partners to equitably address behavioral health workforce shortages, and to better serve the needs of all Californians.

In 2025, all 58 California counties are projected to face a shortage across all behavioral health roles examined, with the most severe shortages in the Northern and Sierra, Inland Empire and San Joaquin Valley regions, as defined by the California Health Interview Survey (CHIS). Using California Health Interview Survey (CHIS) data, the report models supply and demand for behavioral health services in every county to the year 2033.

Findings: 

• In 2025, all 58 counties are projected to face a shortage across all behavioral health roles examined, with the most severe shortages in the Northern and Sierra, Inland Empire, and San Joaquin Valley CHIS regions. 
• All regions and counties are projected to face a shortage of non-prescribing Licensed Clinicians in 2025, with 22 counties facing a severe shortage of -50% or more. Statewide, this represents a -40.6% shortage and an estimated need for 55,298 additional providers to meet forecasted demand. 
• By 2033, it is projected that the overall statewide shortage of non-prescribing licensed clinicians will increase to just over -42%, resulting in a need for 171,413 total providers to meet future demand, nearly double the current statewide supply. 
• In 2025, nearly all regions and counties are projected to face a shortage of associate-level clinicians, with 17 counties facing a severe shortage of -50% or more. Statewide, this represents a -33.6% shortage and an estimated need for 13,175 additional providers to meet forecasted demand.
• By 2033, the statewide shortage of associate level clinicians is projected to decrease by half (-17.7%). However, 43 counties will still face a shortage of -5% or more while 11 counties will face a surplus of 5% or more, indicating a potential maldistribution of providers.
• All regions and counties are projected to face a shortage of psychiatrists in 2025, with 39 counties facing a severe shortage of -50% or more. Statewide, this represents an estimated need for 3,782 additional providers to meet forecasted demand. By 2033, it is projected that need will double to more than 6,200 additional providers needed to meet forecasted demand.