Dylan H. Roby

Dylan H. Roby, PhD, is an affiliate at the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research. He is also interim chair and associate professor of health, society, and behavior at the University of California, Irvine Program in Public Health. Roby collaborates with colleagues at UCLA on the California Simulation of Insurance Markets (CalSIM) microsimulation model, and is a member of UCLA's cost analysis team for the California Health Benefit Review Program. His primary academic appointment is in the UC Irvine Program in Public Health, where he conducts research on Medicaid, the health care safety net, and the Affordable Care Act's implications for insurance markets, system redesign and access to care. He teaches courses on health politics and policy in the BA, MPH, and PhD programs in public health.

Roby was the former director (2012-2014) of the Health Economics and Evaluation Research Program at the Center, where he helped developed the Center's capacity for analysis of Medicaid claims data, Medicaid waiver evaluation, and conducting confidential data analyses and surveys. He served as the associate director of the MPH Program from 2010-2012. Prior to becoming the director of Health Economics and Evaluation Research, he was a senior researcher at the Center from 2003 to 2011.

Before returning to UCLA, Roby worked for four years as a senior research associate at The George Washington University Center for Health Services Research and Policy. He worked on safety net issues, including data analysis and research on community health centers and public hospitals. During his time in Washington, DC, he also worked for the National Association of Community Health Centers, the National Governors' Association's Center for Best Practices, and the Progressive Policy Institute. Roby was also an instructor at The George Washington University Department of Health Policy. Prior to that, he was a research assistant at the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research.

Roby graduated from UCLA with a bachelor's degree in geography and a minor in public policy. He earned his doctoral degree in public policy from The George Washington University.

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External Publication

External Publication

Projected Reduction in Medi-Cal Coverage due to Federal H.R.1 and 2025-26 State Budget, by County, 2028

Authors provide county-level projections of how many fewer Californians will be enrolled in full-scope Medi-Cal by 2028 as a result of policy changes in federal H.R.1 and the enacted 2025–26 state budget. These projections assume the state implements H.R.1 as proposed in the 2026–27 January state budget.

Findings: There is considerable uncertainty about the enrollment impact of these policy changes. Estimates represent the high end of potential Medi-Cal coverage losses. Authors project that 2.98 million fewer Californians will be enrolled in Medi-Cal by 2028 based on and as a result of the following policy changes:

  • H.R.1 work requirements, applied to both federally-funded and state-funded ACA expansion adults (1.87 million)
  • H.R.1 six-month eligibility redeterminations, applied to both federally-funded and state-funded ACA expansion adults (270,000)
  • Asylees, refugees, and other humanitarian immigrants who lose eligibility for federally-funded full-scope Medi-Cal because of H.R.1 and are subsequently moved to partial-scope Medi-Cal (200,000)
  • Enacted 2025–26 State Budget enrollment freeze for undocumented adults (550,000)
  • Enacted 2025–26 State Budget $30 monthly premiums for state-funded adult enrollees with “unsatisfactory immigration status” (95,000)

This analysis uses administrative data, not survey data, as its basis. Authors estimate the number losing full-scope Medi-Cal coverage, not the number projected to become uninsured. Individuals who lose Medi-Cal may choose to enroll in job-based health insurance coverage (if they have that option) or obtain unsubsidized coverage in the individual market. 

Journal Article

Journal Article

Investments in the Social Safety Net Should Outlast Crises

The author discusses how state and federal governments have for decades shared responsibility for funding public health care through programs such as Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), as well as through federal grants. However, recent cuts to federal health and safety net programs mandated in legislation, such as H.R. 1, will weaken the country's future response to crises such as pandemics and natural disasters, and leave states to bear a bigger share of the cost. As a result fewer people will have access to health care or nutrition benefits. The author says that the short-term funding that immediately addressed the COVID-19 pandemic stabilized family incomes, insurance coverage, food availability, and nonprofit support organizations. Long-term interventions by governments could have replicated those short-term efforts, and supported broad health and economic improvements, Instead, under legislation such as H.R. 1, program funding has been cut, and the opportunity has been lost. 

This article introduces a special section in the American Journal of Public Health about health and social policy changes driven by the urgency of the pandemic.

Journal Article

Journal Article

Public Benefit Avoidance And Safety Concerns Among Mixed-Status Latino Families In California, 2021–22

Many Latino immigrants avoid public benefits because of fears about their immigration status or that of family members, which is heightened by anti-immigration rhetoric. This study used data from the Latino Youth Health Study and the 2021–2022 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS) to examine decisions not to apply for noncash public benefits, such as Medicaid, food assistance, and housing subsidies, as well as safety perceptions among income-eligible Latino families in California. Authors also analyzed differences by parental citizenship and household language. 

Findings: Compared to families with two U.S. citizen parents, families with one or both noncitizen parents were more likely (by 38.4 and 46.7 percentage points, respectively) to avoid applying for benefits because of immigration-related concerns, and such families were also more likely to fear deportation for themselves or a family member or close friend. Spanish-only and bilingual households showed similar patterns. These findings underscore the need for accurate information on public benefit eligibility and immigration policies to ensure that immigrant families can access health care and resources to which they are legally entitled.

Journal Article

Journal Article

Organizational Perspectives on the Public Charge Rule and Health Care Access for Latino Immigrants in California

In this qualitative study, authors aim to examine how mis- and disinformation about the Public Charge Ground of Inadmissibility final rule ("public charge rule") influences health care access for Latino immigrants in California. Between May 2024 and April 2025, primary data were collected from 32 interviews (38 participants) with healthcare and community-based organizational leaders serving Latino immigrants in California.

Findings: Participants identified the public charge rule as a significant barrier to health care access for Latino immigrants. The policy has discouraged many Latinos from accessing public benefits, particularly the state's Medicaid and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. In addition, immigrants' trusted sources of information (e.g., family, friends, and attorneys) were often misinformed about the policy, which amplified confusion and fear. Organizations respond by providing accurate information and connecting individuals with reliable resources to clarify that using public benefits would not necessarily result in being classified as a public charge. However, most efforts focused on education rather than directly countering mis- and disinformation. 

External Publication

External Publication

Projected Reduction in Medi-Cal Coverage due to Federal H.R.1 and 2025-26 State Budget, by County, 2028

Authors provide county-level projections of how many fewer Californians will be enrolled in full-scope Medi-Cal by 2028 as a result of policy changes in federal H.R.1 and the enacted 2025–26 state budget. These projections assume the state implements H.R.1 as proposed in the 2026–27 January state budget.

Findings: There is considerable uncertainty about the enrollment impact of these policy changes. Estimates represent the high end of potential Medi-Cal coverage losses. Authors project that 2.98 million fewer Californians will be enrolled in Medi-Cal by 2028 based on and as a result of the following policy changes:

  • H.R.1 work requirements, applied to both federally-funded and state-funded ACA expansion adults (1.87 million)
  • H.R.1 six-month eligibility redeterminations, applied to both federally-funded and state-funded ACA expansion adults (270,000)
  • Asylees, refugees, and other humanitarian immigrants who lose eligibility for federally-funded full-scope Medi-Cal because of H.R.1 and are subsequently moved to partial-scope Medi-Cal (200,000)
  • Enacted 2025–26 State Budget enrollment freeze for undocumented adults (550,000)
  • Enacted 2025–26 State Budget $30 monthly premiums for state-funded adult enrollees with “unsatisfactory immigration status” (95,000)

This analysis uses administrative data, not survey data, as its basis. Authors estimate the number losing full-scope Medi-Cal coverage, not the number projected to become uninsured. Individuals who lose Medi-Cal may choose to enroll in job-based health insurance coverage (if they have that option) or obtain unsubsidized coverage in the individual market. 

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Journal Article

Journal Article

Investments in the Social Safety Net Should Outlast Crises

The author discusses how state and federal governments have for decades shared responsibility for funding public health care through programs such as Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP), as well as through federal grants. However, recent cuts to federal health and safety net programs mandated in legislation, such as H.R. 1, will weaken the country's future response to crises such as pandemics and natural disasters, and leave states to bear a bigger share of the cost. As a result fewer people will have access to health care or nutrition benefits. The author says that the short-term funding that immediately addressed the COVID-19 pandemic stabilized family incomes, insurance coverage, food availability, and nonprofit support organizations. Long-term interventions by governments could have replicated those short-term efforts, and supported broad health and economic improvements, Instead, under legislation such as H.R. 1, program funding has been cut, and the opportunity has been lost. 

This article introduces a special section in the American Journal of Public Health about health and social policy changes driven by the urgency of the pandemic.

Journal Article

Journal Article

Public Benefit Avoidance And Safety Concerns Among Mixed-Status Latino Families In California, 2021–22

Many Latino immigrants avoid public benefits because of fears about their immigration status or that of family members, which is heightened by anti-immigration rhetoric. This study used data from the Latino Youth Health Study and the 2021–2022 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS) to examine decisions not to apply for noncash public benefits, such as Medicaid, food assistance, and housing subsidies, as well as safety perceptions among income-eligible Latino families in California. Authors also analyzed differences by parental citizenship and household language. 

Findings: Compared to families with two U.S. citizen parents, families with one or both noncitizen parents were more likely (by 38.4 and 46.7 percentage points, respectively) to avoid applying for benefits because of immigration-related concerns, and such families were also more likely to fear deportation for themselves or a family member or close friend. Spanish-only and bilingual households showed similar patterns. These findings underscore the need for accurate information on public benefit eligibility and immigration policies to ensure that immigrant families can access health care and resources to which they are legally entitled.

Center in the News

Hospital room building boom can't offset longterm need in Orange County (paywall)

UCLA Center for Health Policy Research affiliate Dylan Roby discussed how everyone in Orange County, California, can benefit when new hospitals expand, even if the new beds are in areas already well-served by hospitals. News https://www.ocregister.com/2026/01/09/hospital-room-building-boom-cant-offset-longterm-need-in-orange-county/

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Center in the News

Health care premiums are set to increase going into the new year

UCLA Center for Health Policy affiliate Dylan Roby shared his expertise on how the expiration of the Affordable Care Act subsidies could affect the number of people who have health insurance in California and which people are most vulnerable — those who earn the least. News https://www.audacy.com/podcast/kcbs-radio-on-demand-011f4/episodes/health-care-premiums-are-set-to-increase-going-into-the-new-year-20df1?action=AUTOPLAY_FULL&actionContentId=201-7892b386-5ce2-4ee0-a8d4-f2a8a9eae764

Center in the News

They power the U.S. economy, but will struggle to afford health care

Dylan Roby, faculty associate at the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and professor at the UC Irvine Joe C. Wen School of Population & Public Health, provided preliminary estimates of how many people may drop out of the Covered California marketplace because their premium subsidies expire. News https://capitalandmain.com/they-power-the-u-s-economy-but-will-struggle-to-afford-health-care

In-Person

Redefining the Safety Net: The Changing Roles of Counties in Providing Health Care

In-Person

Primary Care Physician Supply Under the Patient Protection and Affordble Care Act

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