Mariam Hosseini
510-642-0086
Berkeley -- A new report by the UC
Berkeley Labor Center and UCLA Center for Health Policy Research projects that
California’s recently passed health care policies will both lower the prices in
the individual insurance market as well as keep steady the number of uninsured
in California. In California’s Steps to Expand Health Coverage and Improve
Affordability: Who Gains and Who Will Be Uninsured?, the authors estimate
that by 2022, the state’s policies will have prevented 770,000 Californians
from becoming uninsured and reduced premiums for 1.55 million Californians,
benefitting a net total of 2.2 million Californians.
In 2019, California lawmakers took
steps to build upon the ACA by providing additional state subsidies for
coverage in the individual market, including first-in-the-nation subsidies for
middle income families above the federal subsidy cliff. California will also
expand Medi-Cal coverage to low-income undocumented young adults, and institute
a state individual mandate to replace the federal penalty that Congress
eliminated.
Using CalSIM, a micro-simulation
model that can be used to estimate the impact of various policies on health
insurance coverage in California, the authors project that in the absence of
these new policies, prices in the individual market would be higher and the
number of uninsured in California would have climbed to 4.3 million by 2022.
However, with these policies in place, they project that the number of
uninsured would remain stable at 3.5 million. In addition to the 770,000 who
would gain or retain coverage as a result of California’s policies, they
project 750,000 would pay lower premiums as a result of a healthier mix of
enrollees in the individual market and another 800,000 would receive state
subsidies. Among them, 120,000 are projected to be middle income Californians
not eligible for federal subsidies.
Among the 3.5 million who are
projected to remain uninsured, undocumented Californians remain the largest
group. Low-income undocumented adults age 26 and older continue to be
ineligible for full-scope Medi-Cal coverage. Affordability remains a major
concern for the nearly one million citizens or lawfully present immigrants
projected to be eligible for Covered California but remain uninsured, most of
whom have incomes in the subsidy eligible range. Californians who are
low-income, Latino, or adults under 50 years of age are projected to be more
likely to be uninsured.
“California’s lawmakers have taken
important steps to build on the ACA, and we project 2.2 million Californians
will benefit from these policies,” said Miranda Dietz, CalSIM project director
at the UC Berkeley Labor Center and lead author of the report.
“Though millions of Californians
will benefit from more affordable coverage thanks to these policies, 3.5
million will still be uninsured and many insured Californians will still
struggle to afford coverage and care. Policy makers, including the new Healthy
California for All Commission, have more work to do to make health coverage
universal and affordable for all Californians,” said Gerald Kominski, senior
fellow at the UCLA Center for Health Policy Research and co-author of the
report.
The
Center for Labor Research and Education (Labor Center) is a public service
project of the Institute for Research on Labor and Employment (IRLE) at UC
Berkeley. IRLE connects world-class research with policy to improve workers’
lives, communities, and society.
The UCLA Center for Health Policy Research is one of the nation’s leading health policy research centers and the
premier source of health policy information for California. The Center is the
home of the California Health Interview Survey (CHIS) and is affiliated with
the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health.